Probability of Default (PD) Model

Sageworks developed a proprietary credit risk model that uses the probability of default to assess the creditworthiness of a private company. The global model incorporates financials from the owner or guarantor, providing a more comprehensive analysis of default risk for combined relationships. With this model, banks and credit unions can generate a default risk report for the borrower or use the PD as an objective risk rating. Download Product Overview

  • Pre-screen borrowers before completing a full credit analysis
  • Compare the borrower’s PD to its broader industry
  • Justify loan and risk rating decisions with more objective, data-driven analysis
  • Save time with automated documentation

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Extensive: The PD Model was built by analyzing more than 68,000 financial statements from more than 16,000 businesses across the U.S.

Accurate: Sageworks PD Model is appropriate for assessing risk in operating businesses, including C&I and owner-occupied CRE loans, and the model consistently outperforms the Altman’s Z-Score.

Predictive: The model uses 8 financial factors proven to be predictive of default over the next 12 months.

Comprehensive: Sageworks PD Model includes two distinct models, one for measuring a business’s PD and another model for measuring global PD in a relationship that has a business and a guarantor. In this global model, there are two additional factors to account for guarantor health. This makes the model more comprehensive for measuring risk in C&I or MBL portfolios.